Marie Hunt, Head of Research, CB Richard Ellis

Irish Independent, 1 June 2005

Marie Hunt, director of Research at CBRE Gunne spoke, predicted that the average price of a three-bedroom semi in Ireland will have hit €400,000 by 2015 while at that stage a similar property in Dublin is likely to cost in the order of €525,000.

BusinessWorld.ie, Jul 31 2006

"The second hand housing market is showing signs of price stablisation but some new home buyers are getting nervous because of interest rate movements. This is more indicatative of a steady transition to more stable condition than a sign of a crash or bubble bursting."

Press Release, 17 April 2007:

Property consultants CB Richard Ellis today dismissed last nights Future Shock – Property Crash’ programme, which explored the possibility of a housing market crash in Ireland over the next few years, as ‘irresponsible journalism’.

[...]

...they say that we should not be entertaining negative speculation and unfounded worst-case doom and gloom scenarios when all that is being experienced is a levelling in the extraordinary pace of growth we previously experienced. They say that last nights programme should be dismissed as fiction and that a soft landing for the Irish housing market is still possible and is the most likely scenario.

[...]

According to Marie Hunt, Director of Research at CB Richard Ellis “The property market is in simple terms a sub-set of economic activity and the fundamentals that have been driving the Irish housing market for many years now are completely unique and cannot be compared to other economies. No other country can boast the levels of economic growth that have been witnessed in Ireland in the last decade; no other country has generated the level of employment generation that Ireland has seen; no other country has seen the phenomenal population growth and levels of immigration that Ireland has witnessed and no other economy can match the decline in the average household size that has materialised in Ireland in recent years. It is simply technically incorrect to assume that that Irish house prices will decline significantly simply on the basis that this has occurred in other economies where the fundamentals were so different. It is also irresponsible to suggest that the ‘negative equity’ scenario that occurred in the late 1980’s in the UK could occur in Ireland considering that Irish lending institutions are working under the remit of the Central Bank and continue to stress-test potential borrowers to 2% above ECB rates. The sensationalist approach of last nights programme is in our view irresponsible as property is a very important issue and ultimately the general public will take the sentiments expressed last night on board when deciding whether or not to make what will essentially be the biggest financial decision of their lifetime. Would-be first time buyers who have heeded equally dramatic and incorrect predictions in the past have lost out significantly as they ‘sat on the fence’ and watched prices escalate because of the underlying fundamentals in Ireland. All we ask is that the media consider these fundamentals and adopt a balanced, informed and considered approach when dealing with such an important issue”.


Western People, October 10 2007:

Ms Hunt gave a fascinating insight into the current state of Ireland’s property industry and expressed confidence that the oft-predicted bust would not occur at any stage in the near future. While there would be a slowdown she was confident that the property sector was destined for a ‘soft landing’.

“There has been a definite slowdown in the residential sector and that was to be expected. We were never going to have a sitaution where property prices would continue to grow by up to 20 per cent per annum.

[..]

“Property will continue to appreciate but it will be at far more moderate levels and there is likely to be less investment amongst speculators in the residential property sector.

Kevin Murphy, Irish Independent Journalist

Irish Independent, 28 Jan 2007:

"THE soft landing for Irish house prices would appear to be official.

Last week, the consensus was that house prices would rise by about 5 per cent in 2007. The IAVI, Gunnes and IIB Bank believe we are on course to do what many thought was impossible. We are climbing down from heady heights in an orderly fashion.

And thank goodness for that."

Marc Coleman, Economist

Daft.ie report, 2 Aug 2006:

"Despite some overvaluation in the market, [a downturn in the market] is unlikely. Two fundamental events justify the reacceleration in prices since this time last year. As last year drew to a close, the expected release of SSIA moneys, which began this May, became bankable as deposit leverage. The second more significant event was that at the turn of the year banks became much more liberal with mortgage lending policies. Old multiples of gross income went out. New, and more liberal, measures of net income came in. More important still was the lengthening of mortgage repayment periods - with 40 year mortgages now not uncommon."


Irish Times, 25 Jan 2007:

"All will be well - if politicians don't meddle in the property market."

"I predict that the market will turn itself around, with growth resuming by September 2008. This is not another kick start however, more a resumption of moderate low digit growth. By the middle of next year it will be clear that interest rates have peaked and we should see them start to come down by 2009/2010."


Irish Independent, 6 January 2008:

"Does all of this mean you should wait until 2009 before buying a house? For several reasons, that idea is nonsense."

"When I bought my own house in 2006 I knew it was slightly overvalued. Having just got engaged, my choice was to buy a property in an area where I wanted to live and in commutable distance for myself and fiancée, or to sit out the first years of married life in a 40sq m apartment. Speaking for myself, I have no regrets about my decision. "


Newstalk radio, Tue Jan 22, 2008:

"It's always a good time to buy a house"


Irish Independent, 12 Oct 2008:

In our own housing market, prices are now back to where they were in late 2005. Back then, those prices were overvalued by 15 per cent and a soft landing was still possible. Thanks to the lending binge that ensued, the landing now won't be soft. But, however bumpy, it could still be safe. [...] If fact can replace fear in people's attitudes, the housing market can stabilise early in the new year.

Irish Independent, 16 November 2009:

"THE next time you're walking down any footpath in Ireland with more than 10 people walking along it, I'd like you to conduct this simple exercise; visualise one of the people you see walking towards you with Guantanamo Bay-style orange jump suits, with hands, feet and neck chained together. That is roughly the share of people in this country suffering from negative equity at the moment."

(Presumably Marc himself is in a nice jumpsuit if he bought in 2006? - CMcK)

"They are victims of a vast network of misgovernance encompassing our land laws, our planning system, our spatial strategy, our system of financial regulation, and, yes, our banks. They are also victims of a State that plundered them for tax revenues."

(Perhaps also victims of media pundits telling them it's always a good time to buy a house? - CMCK)

"In Japan, mortgages that are passed on to another generation are common."

(So is seppuko. - CMcK)

Bertie Ahern, Former Taoiseach & Leader of Fianna Fáil

RTE News, April 7th, 2006:

"The Taoiseach has said he does not see a great problem with the levels of borrowing to buy property. Mr Ahern said there had been predictions of a huge downturn in 2005. He added the bad advice given by so many resulted in some people making mistakes when they should have bought property last year. "

Irish Times, 28 April 2007:

"On the other side of the election we'll get back to normality. And I think that normality will be the soft landing. The construction projections were that we will move from something like 93,000 houses to 80-something. Now that's not going to create any kind of a difficulty."

RTE, July 2007:

"Sitting on the sidelines, cribbing and moaning is a lost opportunity. I don't know how people who engage in that don't commit suicide because frankly the only thing that motivates me is being able to actively change something."



Fianna Fail website (cache), September 2007:

"But there is no place for negativity. No need for any pessimism. Above all, there is no place for politically motivated attempts to talk down the economy and the achievements of our people across all sectors."

Irish Times, 19 Sep 2008:

"Bank of Ireland shares are € 3.80 today. Now if I meet you here next year, or the year after, do you seriously think Bank of Ireland shares will be € 3.80? I'd go out and buy Bank of Ireland shares . . . that's what I'd do."

Note: As of 11 March 2009, BOI shares were 22c (source: Yahoo Finance)

Bloomberg, 4 June 2009:

"I can’t remember anyone at any level telling me, ‘The banks are giving hundreds of millions of euros to developers, and they’re borrowing this at short rates, so if anything happens to them, they’re caught... I know some people say ‘you should have asked."

Sunday Times, 27 September 2009:

"[Sean Dunne]’s lost a lot of money on it. Sean’s just one of the guys. I know a lot of them, like [Jimmy] Flynn, [Noel] O’Flaherty and the Baileys. You meet the Baileys at Croke Park every time you go there. You can’t avoid getting a slap on the back going in from them. Most of these guys lost their shirt. I feel sorry for them."

Irish Times, 10 October 2009:

Anyway, it was the collapse of Lehman Brothers that did the real damage, Ahern insists. “That decision will in history be written as the biggest mistake that American administration ever made, because Lehmans was a world investment bank. They had testicles [sic] everywhere.”

Irish Times, 21 Nov 2009:

"Commenting on the State bailout of the banks, Bertie the Comic said "It's great to see, as a socialist, that all these things come around." As for the racecourse venue? "It's great to be here, we could all be back here on Stephen's Day. If you can't make money any other way, you can try it on a horse." It was a pity to see d'oul bank shares going down the swannee, mused the Bert. Then he looked at Sean Fitzpatrick and quipped "although I think Seanie has a bit left!" The audience almost needed oxygen, they laughed so much."