John Mulcahy, NAMA Expert

Irish Independent, 18 July 2007:

"The Irish commercial property market is extremely healthy, but the residential property market needs to take some fiscal Solpadeine before returning to wiser ways [...] The prospects for next year look equally promising"

Dail Joint Committee on Draft NAMA Legislation, 31 August 2009:

"...while my natural humility gets in the way, I have been a bear for the past four years."

(I believe that 31 August 2009 is 2 years and 1 month after 18 July 2007- CMcK)

Liz O'Kane, Property TV Show Presenter

RTE webchat, 10 May 2007:

"My advice is to buy now. Whatever monies people have in their back pockets for stamp duty and should the next government abolish stamp duty for first timers this will simply put the price of properties for first time buyers... UP!"

"Should stamp duty be abolished it will get the market moving again and yes, prices will rise to the tune of whatever stamp duty would have been paid. I suggest buying now before buyers come back to the market."

"The market will come back and anywhere within good proximity to the city is still holding it's value. "

"[The property market] has already has slowed down, although most properties in the Dublin area are holding on"

"No... I don't think any government can afford to let [a property market] crash happen. A levelling off is what we are seeing."

"I find it amusing that the Irish could be paying well over the odds for property for the last ten years."

Sunday Tribune, "Does Investing in Property Still Make Sense", December 2007:

"I'm not an economist but I firmly believe that the market has levelled off and that we'll not see any more price drops in 2008. The recent reform to stamp duty will prove that."

Oops: "HOUSE PRICES in Dublin fell by 16.5 per cent on average last year, and estate agents forecast a further decline of about 10 per cent in 2009."

The Afternoon Show, RTE 1 TV, 15 October 2008

"There was a crazy frenzy going on, the market has realigned, it is correcting itself. [...] There's never been a better time to buy [...] The bottom of the market is very very close. [...] I would think there's great value out there now."

Ironic quote of the year:

"If your house is on the market for a long period of time - i.e, 8 to 12 weeks - psychologically there is negativity going to be thrown at it. Potential buyers - even though they haven't viewed the property - may say 'God, there's something wrong with that house because the board's been up such a long time'."

RTE Radio, Mooney show, 10 Feb 2009:

"we are not expecting double-digit reductions in 2009"

Oops x 2 (and it's only July): "A member survey by the Irish Auctioneers & Valuers Institute (IAVI) has confirmed that [...] prices have fallen 16.9% in the first half of 2009."

Marie Hunt, Head of Research, CB Richard Ellis

Irish Independent, 1 June 2005

Marie Hunt, director of Research at CBRE Gunne spoke, predicted that the average price of a three-bedroom semi in Ireland will have hit €400,000 by 2015 while at that stage a similar property in Dublin is likely to cost in the order of €525,000.

BusinessWorld.ie, Jul 31 2006

"The second hand housing market is showing signs of price stablisation but some new home buyers are getting nervous because of interest rate movements. This is more indicatative of a steady transition to more stable condition than a sign of a crash or bubble bursting."

Press Release, 17 April 2007:

Property consultants CB Richard Ellis today dismissed last nights Future Shock – Property Crash’ programme, which explored the possibility of a housing market crash in Ireland over the next few years, as ‘irresponsible journalism’.

[...]

...they say that we should not be entertaining negative speculation and unfounded worst-case doom and gloom scenarios when all that is being experienced is a levelling in the extraordinary pace of growth we previously experienced. They say that last nights programme should be dismissed as fiction and that a soft landing for the Irish housing market is still possible and is the most likely scenario.

[...]

According to Marie Hunt, Director of Research at CB Richard Ellis “The property market is in simple terms a sub-set of economic activity and the fundamentals that have been driving the Irish housing market for many years now are completely unique and cannot be compared to other economies. No other country can boast the levels of economic growth that have been witnessed in Ireland in the last decade; no other country has generated the level of employment generation that Ireland has seen; no other country has seen the phenomenal population growth and levels of immigration that Ireland has witnessed and no other economy can match the decline in the average household size that has materialised in Ireland in recent years. It is simply technically incorrect to assume that that Irish house prices will decline significantly simply on the basis that this has occurred in other economies where the fundamentals were so different. It is also irresponsible to suggest that the ‘negative equity’ scenario that occurred in the late 1980’s in the UK could occur in Ireland considering that Irish lending institutions are working under the remit of the Central Bank and continue to stress-test potential borrowers to 2% above ECB rates. The sensationalist approach of last nights programme is in our view irresponsible as property is a very important issue and ultimately the general public will take the sentiments expressed last night on board when deciding whether or not to make what will essentially be the biggest financial decision of their lifetime. Would-be first time buyers who have heeded equally dramatic and incorrect predictions in the past have lost out significantly as they ‘sat on the fence’ and watched prices escalate because of the underlying fundamentals in Ireland. All we ask is that the media consider these fundamentals and adopt a balanced, informed and considered approach when dealing with such an important issue”.


Western People, October 10 2007:

Ms Hunt gave a fascinating insight into the current state of Ireland’s property industry and expressed confidence that the oft-predicted bust would not occur at any stage in the near future. While there would be a slowdown she was confident that the property sector was destined for a ‘soft landing’.

“There has been a definite slowdown in the residential sector and that was to be expected. We were never going to have a sitaution where property prices would continue to grow by up to 20 per cent per annum.

[..]

“Property will continue to appreciate but it will be at far more moderate levels and there is likely to be less investment amongst speculators in the residential property sector.

Kevin Murphy, Irish Independent Journalist

Irish Independent, 28 Jan 2007:

"THE soft landing for Irish house prices would appear to be official.

Last week, the consensus was that house prices would rise by about 5 per cent in 2007. The IAVI, Gunnes and IIB Bank believe we are on course to do what many thought was impossible. We are climbing down from heady heights in an orderly fashion.

And thank goodness for that."

Sean Dunne, Property Developer

Irish Times, 27 Sep 2008:

Speaking in 2006:

"every economist associated with every stockbroker in Ireland mistakenly forecast the end of the housing and property boom in Ireland". They had been "vociferous and repetitive", in the process encouraging outside commentators, including the Economist, the IMF and the OECD, to issue warnings about Irish house prices being overvalued. Well, "The hyenas have stopped laughing . . . each and every one of them was wrong. Instead, the price and supply of housing units has continued to break records."

Dermot Ahern, Fianna Fáil Minister

Newstalk radio, Oct 15 2008:

Dermot calls the bottom!

"The housing market is at the bottom"

"Prime Time", RTE 1 TV, 3 Feb 2009:

"No one's really responsible. [The economic crisis] just happened."

Vincent Clarkin, Clarkin Properties

Irish Times, 27 Nov 2008:

"It's down 30 per cent from July '06. However, I don't think property can keep falling, and I'm optimistic that the slump will be gone by Christmas."