Brian Lenihan, Minister for Finance

Seanad Eireann speech, 14 May 2008:

"However, what we do know is that the underlying demand for housing remains strong, driven by a relatively young population and continued inward migration. While we may experience a year or two of sub-50,000 completions, it is reasonable to expect over the medium term that annual completions will return to sustainable levels which will remain high by international standards, reflecting the strong underlying demand for housing in Ireland.

[...]

However, one aspect of the change in the housing market, which is being overlooked by commentators, is that the moderation in house price levels, when combined with measures on stamp duty and mortgage interest relief, taken by the Government at budget time, means that better value is being obtained for those wishing to buy their own home, particularly amongst the first-time buyer group."

Irish Times, 24 October 2010:

MINISTER FOR Finance Brian Lenihan has said the bank guarantee scheme was "a necessary first step" and "the cheapest bailout in the world so far".

Irish Independent, 4 April 2010:

Brian calls the bottom!

"One of the good things about the steep discount, averaging 47 per cent, is that the residential property market will now be stabilised at a realistic level."

You can now buy in confidence that the price is realistic."

Irish Auctioneers & Valuers Institute

Finfacts, 16 January 2008:

Robert calls the bottom!

IAVI president Robert Ganly commented: "Overall, I would say to people that the market is beginning to stabilise. The worst is over."

He said that the absence of further rises in interest rates and the reformed stamp duty regime to provide some support, alongside "strong latent demand from young couples who put off purchasing in 2007".

While prices would continue to fall in 2008, "this levelling off should begin to reverse itself in early 2009, and we would hope to see the property market growing again some time during that year".

Irish Times, 13 January 2010:

2 years later, Aine calls the bottom!

These annual results are in line with our expectations for 2009 and consistent with our belief that the average residential property values would decline 40-50 per cent from peak to trough,” commented IAVI president Aine Myler. “The survey results indicate that the market floor is close, if we have not reached it already.

Insolvency Journal, 10 August 2010:

Latter that year, more bottom spotting....

"With house prices down 42% from their peak in 2006, it looks like the property market may finally have bottomed out, according to the Irish Auctioneers and Valuers Institute (IAVI).

[...]

Property prices are continuing to fall but the increase in activity in the sector is crucial to a recovery in the property market, says IAVI's president Kersten Mehl.

"The consensus amongst our members is that the market has bottomed out," says Mehl."

Liz O'Kane, Property TV Show Presenter

RTE webchat, 10 May 2007:

"My advice is to buy now. Whatever monies people have in their back pockets for stamp duty and should the next government abolish stamp duty for first timers this will simply put the price of properties for first time buyers... UP!"

"Should stamp duty be abolished it will get the market moving again and yes, prices will rise to the tune of whatever stamp duty would have been paid. I suggest buying now before buyers come back to the market."

"The market will come back and anywhere within good proximity to the city is still holding it's value."

"[The property market] has already has slowed down, although most properties in the Dublin area are holding on."

"No... I don't think any government can afford to let [a property market] crash happen. A levelling off is what we are seeing."

"I find it amusing that the Irish could be paying well over the odds for property for the last ten years."

Sunday Tribune, "Does Investing in Property Still Make Sense", December 2007:

"I'm not an economist but I firmly believe that the market has levelled off and that we'll not see any more price drops in 2008. The recent reform to stamp duty will prove that."

Oops: "HOUSE PRICES in Dublin fell by 16.5 per cent on average last year, and estate agents forecast a further decline of about 10 per cent in 2009."

The Afternoon Show, RTE 1 TV, 15 October 2008

"There was a crazy frenzy going on, the market has realigned, it is correcting itself. [...] There's never been a better time to buy [...] The bottom of the market is very very close. [...] I would think there's great value out there now."

Ironic quote of the year, possibly decade:

"If your house is on the market for a long period of time - i.e, 8 to 12 weeks - psychologically there is negativity going to be thrown at it. Potential buyers - even though they haven't viewed the property - may say 'God, there's something wrong with that house because the board's been up such a long time'."

RTE Radio, Mooney show, 10 Feb 2009:

"we are not expecting double-digit reductions in 2009"

Oops x 2 (and it's only July): "A member survey by the Irish Auctioneers & Valuers Institute (IAVI) has confirmed that [...] prices have fallen 16.9% in the first half of 2009."

Interview with Sean Moncrieff, Newstalk radio, 4 Jan 2010:

O'Kane: I mean, those clients coming on my book this month say "Good Lord, I can afford to live in good, mature areas of the city and I could never have dreamt about that two years ago. MISSING Down in south Wicklow commuting, not that there's anything wrong with those counties, I hasten to add. It's the commute that's the travesty.

Moncrieff: That's interesting, but if interest rates go up again, that might affect that....

O'Kane: I'm not an economist, so let's not talk about interest rates.

Moncrieff: OK.

O'Kane: Moving swiftly along, so hope you don't mind.

Moncrieff: OK, a good cop-out though: "I'm not an economist". But interest rates will go up though.

O'Kane: But sometimes I don't think economists know what they're talking about.

[...]

O'Kane: Positive thinking: ask, believe, receive(*). Do not let the mind go to the dark side. 2010 is going to bring great things for us.

Moncrieff: Is it roughly based on Star Wars?

O'Kane: No, the dark side of your mind. Based on.... Don't listen to negative people. If you can avoid them, don't listen to them.

Moncrieff: OK. Under any circumstances whatsoever?

O'Kane: Under any circumstances.

Moncrieff: Say they say you have a terminal disease.

O'Kane: Well.... sorry?

Moncrieff: *laugh* Well, you have a terminal disease. Is that listening to a negative person? Or there an upside to that?

O'Kane: Well, thankfully I won't be hauled into anybody to tell me that, and neither will the majority of us, all going well.

Moncrieff: Well, yes, all going well, indeed... *laugh*

O'Kane: Now, that's really kind of far out there.

Moncrieff: No, I thought I'd throw it out there, testing your theology in a theoretical situation.

(*) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Attraction

The phrase Law of Attraction, used widely by New Thought writers, refers to the idea that thoughts influence chance. The Law of Attraction argues that thoughts (both conscious and unconscious) can affect things outside the head, not just through motivation, but by other means. Essentially, "if you really want something and truly believe it's possible, you'll get it", but putting a lot of attention and thought onto something you don't want means you'll probably get that too.

Widespread popular interest in the Law of Attraction reached its peak after the release of the The Secret, a 2006 film by Australian television writer and producer Rhonda Byrne. [...]

Various scientists have stated that many of the Law's claims are impossible, violating scientific principles and a scientific understanding of the universe.

The Secret lists three required steps — "ask, believe, receive" — as the essence of the Law of Attraction.

Dermot Ahern, Fianna Fáil Minister

Newstalk radio, Oct 15 2008:

Dermot calls the bottom!

"The housing market is at the bottom"

"Prime Time", RTE 1 TV, 3 Feb 2009:

"No one's really responsible. [The economic crisis] just happened."

Nick Hughes, CEO, Coldwell Banker Ireland

Sunday Business Post, 20 January 2008:

No one can truly predict where the housing market is headed, but I firmly believe that the property market remains well-positioned for 2008. Only the lucky few manage to buy at the bottom of the market, and once a market bottoms out it usually bounces again.

Nick calls the bottom!

I believe we are at, or within a hair’s breath of, the bottom and for that reason, it is now time to look seriously at the residential property market again.

Donal Buckley, Irish Independent Journalist

Irish Independent Property Plus, 9 May 2008:

Semi-detached house prices have turned the corner and are on the way back up. According to the latest Permanent TSB house price index prices for three-bedroom semis actually increased by 0.2pc in March.

Donal calls the bottom (for 3-bed semis)!

The turnaround, tentative though it may be, was forecast only last month in these columns when we predicted that this sector of the market would be the first to reach its floor on prices.

Marc Coleman, Economist

Daft.ie report, 2 Aug 2006:

"Despite some overvaluation in the market, [a downturn in the market] is unlikely. Two fundamental events justify the reacceleration in prices since this time last year. As last year drew to a close, the expected release of SSIA moneys, which began this May, became bankable as deposit leverage. The second more significant event was that at the turn of the year banks became much more liberal with mortgage lending policies. Old multiples of gross income went out. New, and more liberal, measures of net income came in. More important still was the lengthening of mortgage repayment periods - with 40 year mortgages now not uncommon."


Irish Times, 25 Jan 2007:

"All will be well - if politicians don't meddle in the property market."

"I predict that the market will turn itself around, with growth resuming by September 2008. This is not another kick start however, more a resumption of moderate low digit growth. By the middle of next year it will be clear that interest rates have peaked and we should see them start to come down by 2009/2010."


Irish Independent, 6 January 2008:

"Does all of this mean you should wait until 2009 before buying a house? For several reasons, that idea is nonsense."

"When I bought my own house in 2006 I knew it was slightly overvalued. Having just got engaged, my choice was to buy a property in an area where I wanted to live and in commutable distance for myself and fiancée, or to sit out the first years of married life in a 40sq m apartment. Speaking for myself, I have no regrets about my decision. "


Newstalk radio, Tue Jan 22, 2008:

"It's always a good time to buy a house"


Irish Independent, 12 Oct 2008:

In our own housing market, prices are now back to where they were in late 2005. Back then, those prices were overvalued by 15 per cent and a soft landing was still possible. Thanks to the lending binge that ensued, the landing now won't be soft. But, however bumpy, it could still be safe. [...] If fact can replace fear in people's attitudes, the housing market can stabilise early in the new year.

Irish Independent, 16 November 2009:

"THE next time you're walking down any footpath in Ireland with more than 10 people walking along it, I'd like you to conduct this simple exercise; visualise one of the people you see walking towards you with Guantanamo Bay-style orange jump suits, with hands, feet and neck chained together. That is roughly the share of people in this country suffering from negative equity at the moment."

(Presumably Marc himself is in a nice jumpsuit if he bought in 2006? - CMcK)

"They are victims of a vast network of misgovernance encompassing our land laws, our planning system, our spatial strategy, our system of financial regulation, and, yes, our banks. They are also victims of a State that plundered them for tax revenues."

(Perhaps also victims of media pundits telling them it's always a good time to buy a house? - CMCK)

"In Japan, mortgages that are passed on to another generation are common."

(So is seppuko. - CMcK)

Brian Cowen, Taoiseach

RTE News, 28 July 2006:

The Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen, has dismissed suggestions that the economy is too dependent on the construction sector.

Responding to new figures showing that the sector now accounts for 25% of Gross National Product, Mr Cowen said that Ireland still had a deficit in infrastructure.


Bloomberg News, 17 July 2008:

"It's important to point out that our banking system in Ireland is very well capitalised"

[...]

"It's coming off a very strong performance over the last 11, 12 years, very strong profits"

[...]

"Our governor of our Central Bank in a report this week has confirmed the healthy nature of our banking system, as I say, well capitalised.

[...]

"We don't have the exposure, any significant exposure in the sub-prime US sector, which has caused a lot of the problems originally and I think it's important to point that out.

[...]

"I think one of the issues that's been affecting market sentiment with the share price for those companies has been a perception about exposure to the construction industry, in terms of the correction that's taken place in residential housing.

[...]

"I think it's important to point out that the underlying fundamentals of the economy remain very strong and in the absence of that particular sector, we would have seen growth of 4% in the first six months.


Irish Independent, 1 July 2009:

Biffo calls the bottom!

Mr Cowen said the slump in the housing market was nearing an end. "I believe we are coming to a point this year where that will bottom out," he said.

Ronnie O'Toole, National Irish Bank (NIB) Economist

RTE, 8 April 2008:

National Irish Bank's quarterly report on the economy says house prices have almost 'bottomed out' and in the second half of this year sales activity will return to normal.

NIB's economist Ronnie O'Toole, author of the bank's report, says the housing market in bigger cities will recover quicker than rural parts of the country.

'While supply continues to retrench, there are signs that housing demand might finally be stabilising,' Dr O'Toole said.

Ronnie calls the bottom!

'House prices are bottoming out some 15% off their 2006 peak levels and a more normal level of activity will return to the market in the second half of the year,' he added.

Mark Fitzgerald, CEO, Sherry Fitzgerald

Pat Kenny, RTE Radio 1, 29 Jun 2009

"I think probably 7 or 8 years ago [since we had a normal property market]"

"[50% drop] is a rapid correction"

"I think the correction is very very far advanced.... Houses prices have fallen by 40 to 50%...."

Mark calls the bottom!

"I think what they're now doing in Dublin is stabilising, they're at a level and they've stopped falling would be my view."

Gerry Ryan, RTE Radio Presenter

Gerry Ryan Show, 17 Feb 2008:

Gerry calls the bottom!


"Now is your time to go out and buy that house because they're never going to be cheaper. Never going to be cheaper."

Note: As of June 2009, house prices have dropped 14% since the time of the above quote; a person buying the average house will have saved €35,000 - or, 6% of Gerry's annual salary.

"Would the Real Gerry Ryan Please Stand Up", autobiography:

"I'm a great fan of property developers because I believe they turned the country around"

[...]

"These guys are really our merchant princes. I think there's been a lot of pointless tut-tutting in relation to the amount of money they've made. The likes of Sean Dunne, Harry Crosby and Johnny Ronan pulled Ireland up by its bootlaces and propelled it into the future"

[...]

"These guys rejoice in profit. And I'm not ashamed to say that I do too."

[...]

"I find myself most comfortable among those people. I also find myself the least wealthy man in the room."

[...]

"Bertie Ahern is, without doubt, more than any other politician in the history of the Republic, substantially responsible for the success of this country."

[...]

"My favourite sommelier was Pascal in Dromoland."

(Sorry, nothing to do with property, but I couldn't help but include it - CMcK)

Isabel Morton, Irish Times Columnist & Interior Designer

Irish Times, 24 April 2008:

"The only people who are likely to suffer are those who bought a property at the height of the boom, in early 2006 [...] For the majority of us who have owned our property for three years or more, we can relax in the knowledge that we were lucky enough to have benefited greatly from the boom years."

Note: By May 2009, house prices were back at 2004 levels:

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-prices-in-record-nosedive-to-2004-levels-1753171.html

"We all got such a fright last year, that we huddled up in the far corner of the field waiting for the sheepdog to herd us towards the gate. Well the property gate is open again. Not quite as wide open as it had been before, but open nevertheless. So let's get moving. You can never buy at the wrong time."

Ooops...

"You are right to be sorry that you didn't sell in early 2006 when you could have. And you are right to be resentful of your neighbour who did. And no doubt, you would give anything to swipe the smug smile off his beaming face."

Irish Times, Feb 5th 2009:

"Borrowers could sue the banks for lending them more that the recommended guidelines."

Irish Times, 19 Feb 2009:

"Are bolshie buyers bullying vendors?"

Irish Times, 29 Jan 2009:

"We ignored the warning signs. We never queried or questioned. We let it happen. And now we are desperately looking around for someone to blame. Some call for another general election, despite knowing that it would make zero difference. Others march in the streets, write letters to newspaper editors and make irate phone calls to radio chat shows.And a few sad, sorry and conveniently anonymous property bloggers have nothing better to do than turn cyberspace red with their bitching and berating of everything and everyone, yet have not got the guts to put their names to their tirades."

Irish Times, 5 Mar 2009:

"Perhaps, as has happened before in the 1950s and 1970s, large homes have, quite simply, gone out of fashion again, as we can no longer afford to decorate, maintain, heat or staff them."

Irish Times, 12 Mar 2009:

Isabel calls the bottom!

"MANY HAVE hinted at it over the last couple of weeks, but I’m just going to say it: THE PROPERTY MARKET HAS REACHED THE BOTTOM!"

Note: The following month saw the biggest price drops since records began (oops):

http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0527/houses.html


Irish Times, 12 Nov 2009:

"Buyers are the ones being greedy these days"

"Instead of vendors holding out for as much money as possible when selling their property, purchasers are now attempting to save as much as possible when buying a home."


Irish Times, 3 Dec 2009:

"Last weekend, I re-lived the decade, looking through my numerous box-files filled with property brochures collected over the years. Arranged according to area or postcode...."

Ken MacDonald, Hooke & MacDonald Estate Agents

Irish Independent, 25 March 2007:

"As one who has been involved in the Irish property market for 40 years and has experienced every type of market scenario, I am totally convinced that the market is currently in good shape and that anyone buying now will do extremely well in the years ahead. There is no better investment than Irish property at present, and I believethat I will be proved right in this conviction.

[...]

Why do we allow scaremongers and doomsayers with unfounded pessimism and unbridled negativity dictate our thinking and blunt consumer confidence? The Irish economy is the envy of the world. Job creation is phenomenal with more than 7,000 new jobs being created each month - despite the gloomy attention given to periodic job losses in some sectors."

Irish Independent, May 2 2008:

"I would have no hesitation recommending any friends of mine to buy at the present time because with the sharp reduction in new starts, it is inevitable that there will be a shortage of supply in Dublin in the very near future".

Sunday Business Post, 7 Dec 2008:

‘‘Hopefully people will realise it’s cheaper now to pay a mortgage on a property rather than renting a property."

Ken (indirectly) calls the bottom!

Irish Independent Property Plus,